Judging Contending Estimators by Simulation: Tournaments in Dynamic Panel Data Models

An attempt is made to set rules for a fair and fruitful competition between alternative inference methods based on their performance in simulation experiments. This leads to a list of eight methodologic aspirations. Against their background we criticize aspects of many simulation studies that have been used in the past to compare competing estimators for dynamic panel data models. To illustrate particular pitfalls some further Monte Carlo results are produced, obtained from a simulation design inspired by an analysis of the (non-)invariance properties of estimators and occasionally by available higher-order asymptotic results. We focus on the very speci…c case of alternative implementations of one and two step generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators in homoskedastic stable zero-mean panel AR(1) models with random individual speci…c e¤ects. We compare a few implementations, including GMM sytem estimators with alternative weight matrices, and illustrate that an impartial evaluation of the outcome of a Monte Carlo based contest requires evidence –both analytical and empirical –on the completeness, orthogonality and relevance of the simulation design. Department of Quantitative Economics, Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands ([email protected]). This paper bene…tted tremendously from discussions I had over the years with many of the authors whose work is refered to in this study. However, none but the author himself should be held responsible for the opinions expressed here.